CER Weekly Press Release 1-5-12

 

 

PRESS RELEASE: January 5, 2012

 

Dr. Robert Carreira

Director, Center for Economic Research

Cochise College

901 N. Colombo Ave.

Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

 

Phone: 520-515-5486

Email: cer@cochise.edu

October sales improve in major local industries    

 

In October, inflation-adjusted sales were up in Cochise County's retail and restaurant and bar industries, compared to October 2010. Accommodation sales were up nominally, but down after the inflation adjustment. October's inflation-adjusted decline, however, showed improvement from the magnitude of declines seen earlier in the year.

 

Countywide retail sales in October were up 0.8 percent after the inflation adjustment. In the first 10 months of the year, retail sales countywide were down 0.7 percent compared to the same period a year prior. Retail sales have alternated between positive and negative monthly growth, with sales up in 7 of the past 14 months.

 

Countywide restaurant and bar sales were up 16.6 percent in October, pushing year-to-date sales into positive territory. In the first 10 months of 2011, sales were up 0.9 percent. Sales have been up in 10 of the most recent 14 months.

 

Cochise County's accommodation industry saw a 2.6 percent decrease in sales in October, following the inflation adjustment. Sales were up 0.9 percent before taking inflation into account.  Accommodation sales include hotel, motel, RV Park, and other temporary lodging stays of less than 30 days. Countywide accommodation sales were down 12.2 percent in the 10 months from January through October, compared to the same period a year prior. Sales have been down in 11 of the past 13 months. 

 

At the city level, restaurant and bar receipts in Benson were down 11.6 percent in October. From January through October, sales were down 11.8 percent compared to the same period a year prior. Sales have been down in 15 of the most recent 16 months.

 

Benson's accommodation receipts in October were down 16.8 percent. In the first 10 months of 2011, sales were down 7.8 percent. Sales have been down in 10 of the most recent 12 months.

 

Retail sales data are not available for Benson. Retail sales tax revenue for sales occurring in October, however, was down 3.3 percent (unadjusted) when compared to October a year prior. In the first 10 months of 2011, retail sales tax revenue was down 7.5 percent (unadjusted) compared to the first 10 months of 2010. 

 

Retail sales in Bisbee were up 6 percent in October compared to October 2010. In the first 10 months of the year, sales were up 9.1 percent. Sales have been up in 9 of the most recent 13 months, largely due to the opening of the new ACE Hardware store in late 2010.

 

Bisbee's restaurant and bar sales were up 21.6 percent in October. Sales have been up in 4 of the past 5 months. Despite gains in recent months, however, sales were down 2.6 percent from January through October, compared to the same period of 2010. This was due to weak performance earlier in the year.

 

Bisbee's accommodation receipts were up 31.9 percent in October, the second straight month of strong growth following declines in 5 of the previous 7 months. In the first 10 months of the 2011, sales were down 5.1 percent due to declines earlier in the year.

 

In Douglas, restaurant and bar sales were up 4.1 percent in October. In the first 10 months of the year, sales were up 14.1 percent. Sales have been up in 11 of the most recent 16 months. The strong performance is likely attributable, in part, to the deployment of National Guard troops to the area to assist in border security, along with an increased Border Patrol presence. Another factor might be increased tax enforcement and compliance as the city took over its own sales tax collection in late 2010.

 

Retail and accommodation sales data are not available for Douglas. Retail sales tax revenue for sales occurring in October, however, was up 3.6 percent (unadjusted) compared to October a year prior. In the first 10 months of 2011, retail sales tax revenue was up 7.2 percent (unadjusted) compared to the first 10 months of 2010.

 

In Huachuca City, retail sales were up 4.9 percent in October, compared to October a year prior. In the first 10 months of the year, sales were up 0.9 percent. Sales have been up in 5 of the past 8 months. Accommodation and restaurant and bar sales data are not available for Huachuca City.

 

In Sierra Vista, retail sales were up 0.7 percent in October, the second month of modest growth following 6 consecutive months of decline. In the first 10 months of 2011, sales were down 3.5 percent compared to the same period of 2010. Sales have been down in 10 of the past 15 months.

 

Sierra Vista's restaurant and bar sales were up 22 percent in October. In the first 10 months of the year, sales were up 4.6 percent. The city's restaurant and bar sales have been up in 5 of the past 9 months.

 

Sierra Vista's accommodation sales were down 22.9 percent in October. In the first 10 months of 2011, sales were down 9.2 percent compared to the same period a year prior. Sales have been down in 7 of the most recent 9 months.

 

In Tombstone, retail sales were up 51.7 percent in October, pushing year-to-date sales into positive territory. From January through October, sales were up 1.7 percent. The strong performance in October is likely attributable to a much stronger Helldorado Days festival than in 2010. Tombstone's retail sales have been up in 6 of the past 13 months. 

 

Tombstone's restaurant and bar sales were up 25.2 percent in October. In the first 10 months of the year, however, sales were down 12.3 percent. Despite October's strong performance tied to Helldorado Days, sales have been down in 5 of the past 7 months.

 

Accommodation receipts in Tombstone were up 4.7 percent in October. In the first 10 months of 2011, however, sales were down 6.3 percent compared to the same period a year prior. Sales have been down in 12 of the most recent 17 months.

 

In Willcox, restaurant and bar sales were down 0.4 percent in October. In the first 10 months of 2011, sales were down 9.2 percent compared to the same period a year prior.

 

Accommodation receipts in Willcox were up 30.9 percent in October. From January through October, sales were up 13.4 percent.

 

Retail sales data are not available for Willcox. Unadjusted retail sales tax revenue, however, was up 27 percent for sales occurring in October. In the first 10 months of the year, retail sales tax revenue was up 19.4 percent (unadjusted) compared to the first 10 months of 2010.

 

Dr. Robert Carreira is director of the Center for Economic Research at Cochise College. If you have any questions on the economy, please contact the CER at (520) 515-5486 or by email at cer@cochise.edu. Check out the CER's website at www.cochise.edu/cer.

 

 

COCHISE COUNTY SALES
	October 2011	October 2010	% Change	Inflation-adjusted Growth*	YTD 2011	YTD 2010	Annual % Change	Annual Inflation-adjusted Growth*
Cochise County
Retail	$57,052,877	$54,696,073	4.3%	0.8%	$599,994,284	$585,429,865	2.5%	-0.7%
Restaurant & Bar	$11,596,450	$9,649,750	20.2%	16.6%	$113,446,143	$109,034,624	4.0%	0.9%
Accommodation	$3,563,748	$3,530,820	0.9%	-2.6%	$35,466,030	$39,013,042	-9.1%	-12.2%
Benson
Restaurant & Bar	$842,360	$915,880	-8.0%	-11.6%	$9,286,600	$10,167,600	-8.7%	-11.8%
Accommodation	$282,000	$325,000	-13.2%	-16.8%	$3,506,622	$3,678,778	-4.7%	-7.8%
Bisbee
Retail	$2,562,480	$2,339,800	9.5%	6.0%	$29,558,720	$26,338,720	12.2%	9.1%
Restaurant & Bar	$517,280	$413,360	25.1%	21.6%	$5,923,400	$5,891,240	0.5%	-2.6%
Accommodation	$195,040	$144,060	35.4%	31.9%	$1,446,380	$1,475,460	-2.0%	-5.1%
Douglas
Restaurant & Bar	$1,158,036	$1,075,857	7.6%	4.1%	$12,055,786	$10,280,964	17.3%	14.1%
Huachuca City
Retail	$332,067	$306,333	8.4%	4.9%	$3,363,733	$3,231,267	4.1%	0.9%
Sierra Vista
Retail	$38,299,600	$36,745,257	4.2%	0.7%	$402,028,000	$403,565,314	-0.4%	-3.5%
Restaurant & Bar	$6,541,462	$5,209,962	25.6%	22.0%	$63,033,615	$58,494,077	7.8%	4.6%
Accommodation	$1,667,182	$2,068,673	-19.4%	-22.9%	$20,520,327	$21,836,545	-6.0%	-9.2%
Tombstone
Retail	$1,013,440	$652,680	55.3%	51.7%	$7,551,720	$7,199,960	4.9%	1.7%
Restaurant & Bar	$933,840	$725,200	28.8%	25.2%	$5,775,800	$6,355,080	-9.1%	-12.3%
Accommodation	$231,518	$213,927	8.2%	4.7%	$1,953,487	$2,016,455	-3.1%	-6.3%
Willcox
Restaurant & Bar	$563,633	$546,633	3.1%	-0.4%	$5,726,967	$6,096,267	-6.1%	-9.2%
Accommodation	$402,643	$299,514	34.4%	30.9%	$3,070,443	$2,634,200	16.6%	13.4%
YTD = Year to Date * Inflation rate determined by change in the Consumer Price Index. Source: Arizona Department of Revenue, City of Douglas, City of Willcox, and Cochise College Center for Economic Research. Figures shown are estimates, based on transaction privilege tax collections.

 

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